Thursday, March 19, 2020

"Success means a longer — though less catastrophic — fight against the coronavirus. And it is unclear whether Americans — who built this country on ideals of independence and individual rights..."

"... would be willing to endure such harsh restrictions on their lives for months, let alone for a year or more.... If no action to limit the viral spread were taken, as many as 2.2 million people in the United States could die over the course of the pandemic.... Adopting some mitigation strategies to slow the pandemic — such as isolating those suspected of being infected and social distancing of the elderly — only cuts the death toll in half to 1.1 million, although it would also reduce demand for health services by two-thirds. Only by enacting an entire series of drastic, severe restrictions could America shrink its death toll further.... That strategy would require, at minimum, the nationwide practice of social distancing, home isolation, and school and university closures. And such restrictions would have to be maintained, at least intermittently, until a working vaccine is developed, which could take 12 to 18 months at best.... If the numbers next month get truly crazy, cities may look to convert stadiums into isolation wards, as in Wuhan. [Governor Andrew] Cuomo has talked of turning the six-block-long Javits Convention Center on New York City’s west side into a medical surge facility. Others might take Italy’s approach and split hospitals into those treating coronavirus and those treating all other medical problems, to reduce transmission. In San Francisco, we may see coronavirus patients put into RVs...."

From "Coronavirus will radically alter the U.S./Here’s what may lie ahead based on math models, hospital projections and past pandemics" (WaPo).

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